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News Analysis

BC Premier Eby Heads to China to Pitch the $28B Kitimat LNG Expansion: What the Trade Mission Means for BC Workers, Forestry Exporters, and Seafood Producers

Premier David Eby's June 27 to July 3 China trade mission targets a final investment decision on LNG Canada Phase 2, relief from Chinese seafood tariffs, and forestry market diversification. Here's what BC workers, exporters, and small businesses should be doing right now to position for the outcomes.

By Refdesk Team

BC Premier Eby Heads to China to Pitch the $28B Kitimat LNG Expansion: What the Trade Mission Means for BC Workers, Forestry Exporters, and Seafood Producers

What This Means for You

Trade missions rarely produce same-week deliverables. They produce signals, relationships, and a runway for decisions that land months later. Premier David Eby's June 27 to July 3, 2026 mission to Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou is no exception — but the signals matter more than usual because two specific decisions are riding on it: PetroChina's expected final investment decision (FID) on LNG Canada Phase 2 in Kitimat (worth roughly $28 billion in provincial revenue over the project's life), and the possible lifting of Chinese tariffs on BC seafood. For workers, exporters, and small businesses, the right move is to position now for the most likely scenarios rather than wait for a deal announcement. Based on our analysis of how BC's "Look West" trade-diversification posture has rolled out so far, and how previous Canadian trade missions to China (the Trudeau mission of 2017, the Horgan mission of 2019) translated into commercial outcomes, here is what you should be doing.

If You Work in BC Forestry (Mill, Logging, or Manufacturing):

Immediate action this week:

  • Update your firm's China-readiness checklist. If your operation already exports softwood lumber, pulp, or engineered wood products into the Chinese market, confirm with your sales team that your CIQ (China Inspection and Quarantine) phytosanitary certifications, HS codes, and Chinese-language packaging compliance are all current. Trade missions accelerate the front of the funnel — if your paperwork is not ready, you cannot capture the demand that follows.
  • Watch the U.S. softwood lumber duties picture. According to BC government communications, U.S. tariffs are "really hurting" the BC forestry sector. The combination of a higher U.S. duty rate and a Chinese tariff reduction would meaningfully shift the optimal product mix for BC sawmills. Talk to your shipping coordinator about Pacific-route container availability through August.
  • Engage your local Forestry Innovation Investment (FII) office. FII, the BC government's market development arm for wood products, maintains offices in Shanghai and Guangzhou. They typically run buyer-introduction programs in the weeks immediately following premier-level missions. Get on the next mission roster while the door is open.

Example scenario: A mid-sized Interior BC sawmill producing 350 million board feet a year, with current sales splits of 70 percent U.S., 15 percent China, 10 percent Japan, and 5 percent domestic, should be modelling what happens if Chinese demand reopens at 2018-era pricing. A swing of just 10 percentage points of output from the U.S. to China — at recent Chinese market prices — is worth roughly $4 to $7 million in gross revenue per year for a mill of that size, depending on grade mix. That is the order of magnitude that justifies dedicating one senior manager to a 60-day China-market push starting now.

If You Work in BC Seafood (Harvester, Processor, or Aquaculture):

Immediate action:

  • Inventory your China-eligible product lines. Chinese tariffs on Canadian seafood have been a major drag on BC exporters since 2024, particularly on shellfish, crab, and certain finfish categories. According to CBC News reporting on the trade mission, lifting these tariffs is on Eby's agenda. If they come off, the response window is short — Chinese buyers re-source quickly when a market reopens.
  • Confirm your facility's China-listed status with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA). China requires foreign seafood processors to be individually listed by China's General Administration of Customs (GACC). Lapsed listings can take 6 to 12 months to renew. If your facility has dropped off the list during the tariff freeze, start the relisting paperwork via CFIA's Export Certification Services immediately.
  • Pre-position cold storage and shipping capacity. Vancouver-area reefer container availability tightens fast when Pacific seafood demand spikes. Lock in space with your logistics provider for August and September shipments contingent on tariff outcomes.

Example scenario: A Vancouver Island shellfish processor whose pre-tariff China sales accounted for 30 percent of revenue (roughly $9 million on a $30 million top line) has likely shifted to the U.S., Japanese, and domestic markets at lower margins. A reopening of China at even half the previous volume restores about $4 to $5 million in higher-margin revenue. That return justifies investing now in a part-time Mandarin-capable account manager and reactivating dormant Chinese buyer relationships.

If You're a Kitimat-Area Worker or LNG Supplier:

Immediate action:

  • Distinguish Phase 1 (operating) from Phase 2 (FID-pending). LNG Canada Phase 1 in Kitimat is already operating and is not affected by this mission. Phase 2 — the expansion that doubles capacity — is the "really big fish" Eby referred to in his pre-departure briefing. A positive FID announcement, expected in late 2026 according to industry reporting, would trigger a multi-year construction phase: the original Phase 1 build employed roughly 7,000 to 8,000 workers at peak.
  • Get on the LNG Canada local-hire registry now. The LNG Canada Local Hire and Indigenous Business Engagement teams maintain registries for construction-phase staffing. If you are a tradesperson, engineer, or supplier in northwestern BC or in the Haisla Nation territory, register early — Phase 1 demonstrated that registrants who signed up before FID got priority placement when ramp-up began.
  • Talk to your union local about Phase 2-specific Project Labour Agreements (PLAs). Phase 1 had specific PLAs negotiated through the Christian Labour Association of Canada and various building-trades unions. Phase 2 negotiations will be a leverage moment for local hiring, wages, and Indigenous employment ratios.

If You're a BC Small Business with Any Export Exposure:

Immediate action:

  • Review your customer-concentration risk by country. If more than 60 percent of your export revenue runs through a single country (most commonly the United States for BC firms), you are exactly the kind of business the "Look West" strategy is built around. Start a diversification plan even if you have no immediate intention to ship to China.
  • Take advantage of provincial trade-program support. BC's Ministry of Jobs, Economic Development and Innovation runs the Export Navigator program (free advisory services) and the Trade Accelerator Program (cohort-based, more intensive). Both have China-specific modules.
  • Understand the currency exposure. A pivot from USD invoicing to RMB or CAD-denominated invoicing changes your hedging math significantly. Talk to your bank's foreign-exchange desk before the first contract, not after.

For All British Columbians:

What to track this week:

  • The day-by-day cadence of the mission. Premier-level trade missions typically front-load symbolic announcements (memorandums of understanding, framework agreements) and reserve the most commercially significant news for the closing days. Watch the BC government news feed and CBC British Columbia coverage between July 1 and July 3.
  • The federal interaction. Provincial trade missions do not bypass federal trade authority — Global Affairs Canada coordinates closely. Any tariff-relief language out of Beijing will hinge on federal follow-through.
  • The political optics in Canada. A successful BC mission to China will be politically charged in Ottawa given Canada-China tensions on other files (Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor were detained in 2018; bilateral relations have remained sensitive). Expect debate in Question Period and editorial coverage.

The News: What Happened

According to a BC government news release, Premier David Eby is leading his first-ever trade mission to China from June 27 until July 3, 2026, visiting Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. The mission focuses on BC's forestry, energy, tourism, and agriculture sectors.

According to CBC News, the marquee meeting is with PetroChina, a joint-venture participant in LNG Canada and the prospective lead in financing the second phase of the Kitimat LNG facility. CBC reported that the expansion is worth approximately $28 billion in provincial revenue terms, with a final investment decision expected later in 2026.

The Premier's pre-departure remarks, reported by CBC and Global News, cited U.S. tariffs as a primary motivator: Eby said the U.S. tariffs were "really hurting" the BC forestry sector and that many BC jobs depend on the China relationship. He also stated his intention to seek the lifting of Chinese tariffs that have affected BC's seafood sector.

According to Global News and Island Social Trends, China was the second-largest destination for BC goods exports in 2025, with exports valued at nearly $11 billion — making up roughly 20 percent of the province's commodity exports. The province has set a target of doubling non-U.S. exports within the next 10 years under what BC officials have described as a "Look West" framework.

Analysis: Why This Matters

Based on our analysis of the BC export profile and the political timing, three factors make this mission more consequential than a typical premier-level trade trip. First, the LNG Canada Phase 2 FID is a binary outcome with very large dollar values attached: a positive decision unlocks a multi-year construction wave in northwestern BC; a deferred decision pushes the timeline well into the late 2020s. Second, the U.S. tariff environment is structurally hostile to several BC export categories (softwood lumber, seafood, certain manufactured goods), creating an unusual political alignment between an NDP provincial government and an investor-class push toward Asian markets. Third, the federal government has been signalling diversification through its own trade architecture; a province moving in the same direction reduces the political risk of Ottawa-Victoria conflict on China policy.

Historical Context:

BC's modern trade relationship with China was built up substantially during the Christy Clark Liberal-government era (2011 to 2017), with a focus on lumber and LNG. The 2018–2019 detention of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor and the subsequent retaliatory tariffs on Canadian canola, beef, and seafood badly damaged the bilateral relationship. The Horgan NDP government took a more cautious posture in 2019. Eby's 2026 mission represents the most active provincial-level engagement with Beijing since before the Kovrig-Spavor crisis. The premise has shifted: the question is no longer whether to engage, but how to engage in a way that captures economic value while managing security, human-rights, and federal-relations risks.

What Happens Next:

A realistic read of likely outcomes by mid-July 2026: a memorandum of understanding on LNG Canada Phase 2 advancement, framework language on forestry-product cooperation, possible specific tariff relief on one or two seafood subcategories (not the full basket), and a sub-national agreement on tourism and education exchanges. A full PetroChina FID announcement during the mission itself is unlikely; FIDs of this scale follow board processes that do not synchronize with diplomatic trips. Expect the FID announcement, if it comes, in the September–November 2026 window.

Your Action Plan

Immediate (This Week):

  • If you are a BC exporter to any market: pull your customer-by-country revenue breakdown and identify your concentration risk.
  • If you have lapsed China-export certifications (CFIA seafood listing, FII lumber paperwork, GACC food facility registration), start renewal immediately.
  • Sign up for the BC Ministry of Jobs Export Navigator service if you are not already enrolled.

Short-term (This Month):

  • Forestry firms: model your output and pricing under a "+10 ppt China share" scenario.
  • Seafood firms: pre-position cold storage and shipping capacity for August–September contingent on tariff outcomes.
  • Kitimat-area tradespeople and suppliers: register with the LNG Canada Phase 2 hiring and supplier portals.
  • Anyone with USD-heavy invoicing: meet with your bank's FX desk to discuss CAD or RMB diversification.

Long-term (This Year):

  • Watch for the LNG Canada Phase 2 FID announcement (most likely September–November 2026).
  • If FID is positive: expect Kitimat-area construction labour demand to begin ramping in early 2027; act on housing, training, and trades certification ahead of that ramp.
  • Track BC's Look West progress reports — the province has committed to doubling non-U.S. exports by 2036; published progress markers should appear in the next provincial budget cycle.

Other Perspectives

Government View:

According to the Office of the Premier, Eby framed the trip as a defensive move against U.S. tariff pressure and an offensive move to capture LNG, forestry, and tourism market share. The government's stated metric is doubling non-U.S. exports within 10 years.

Industry View:

According to CBC and Global News reporting, BC forestry industry representatives have publicly welcomed the diversification push, citing the cumulative damage of U.S. softwood lumber duties. Seafood industry groups have specifically flagged Chinese tariffs as a critical loss they want addressed.

Opposition View:

BC United and other opposition voices have historically pushed for stronger trade engagement with Asia. According to public statements and editorial coverage, criticism of the trip is more likely to focus on the human-rights and security dimensions of engagement with China than on the economic premise.

Federal Government View:

Global Affairs Canada has not publicly commented on the specific commercial deliverables of the BC mission. The federal Indo-Pacific Strategy, launched in 2022, frames Canada-China engagement as "strategic competition" with selective economic engagement — a framing broadly consistent with what Eby is doing at the sub-national level.

Civil Society and Labour View:

Some labour and civil-society groups have raised concerns about the human-rights implications of expanded engagement with China. Others, including some northwestern BC building-trades unions, have welcomed any path that unlocks the Kitimat Phase 2 construction wave.

Note: Including multiple perspectives doesn't imply all views are equally valid, but ensures readers can make informed judgments.

Corrections Policy

We strive for accuracy. If you find an error in this analysis, please email us at [email protected]. We will promptly investigate and correct any factual inaccuracies.

Updates:

  • No corrections to date (as of June 28, 2026).

Sources