One Year of US Tariffs on Canada: 51,800 Manufacturing Jobs Lost and What You Should Do Now

What This Means for You

The Canada-US trade war has now passed the one-year mark, and the data tells a clear story: certain sectors and regions are being hit hard while the broader economy has shown surprising resilience. Whether you work in manufacturing, own a small business, or are simply watching grocery and consumer prices creep higher, the second year of tariffs will require different strategies than the first. Based on our analysis of RBC Economics data, Statistics Canada employment figures, CFIB small business surveys, and Bank of Canada forecasts, here is what you need to know and do right now.

If You Work in Manufacturing

Manufacturing has been the hardest-hit sector, shedding 51,800 jobs over the past 12 months according to Statistics Canada data analyzed by BNN Bloomberg. The losses are concentrated in Ontario, particularly in the auto, steel, and aluminum industries. If you work in this sector, your risk profile depends heavily on your specific industry and location.

Assess your personal risk level:

High risk: Auto assembly, auto parts, steel and aluminum production, softwood lumber — these industries face US tariffs of 25 to 50 per cent and have already seen significant layoffs
Moderate risk: Plastics, chemicals, and other manufacturing tied to US supply chains — disruptions are growing but have not yet resulted in mass layoffs
Lower risk: Food and beverage manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing serving domestic or non-US markets

Immediate steps if you're in a high-risk role:

Update your resume now — do not wait for a layoff notice. According to CBC News, auto parts employment has dropped 9.5 per cent year over year
Register with your provincial employment services office — Ontario, Quebec, and BC have all expanded eligibility for retraining programs tied to tariff-affected industries
Explore the federal $570-million workforce reskilling program — if you have been laid off or had hours reduced due to tariffs, you may qualify for free training, career counselling, and income support while retraining (see our detailed guide)
Consider transferable skills — manufacturing workers often have strong skills in quality control, logistics, project management, and technical operations that transfer well to healthcare, construction, natural resources, and technology sectors

Example scenario: A 42-year-old auto parts machinist in Windsor making $62,000 per year receives a layoff notice. Under the federal reskilling program, they can access up to 52 weeks of EI benefits plus a training allowance to retrain as a CNC programmer for the aerospace sector, where demand is growing. The total value of retraining support could exceed $35,000 in income support plus free tuition.

If You Own or Run a Small Business

According to CFIB research, 68 per cent of Canadian small businesses report being negatively affected by US tariffs. The top impacts are higher expenses (63 per cent), reduced profits (53 per cent), lower revenue (48 per cent), and supply chain disruptions (42 per cent).

Diversification strategy — the data says it's working:

According to RBC Economics, Canadian merchandise exports to non-US economies are up 17 per cent year over year, while exports to the US have fallen 10 per cent
One-third of SMEs have already moved away from US suppliers or customers, and another third are considering it, according to CFIB data
Of those diversifying, 67 per cent are turning to Canadian partners, 34 per cent to the EU, and 21 per cent to Mexico

Concrete steps for your business:

Audit your US exposure — calculate what percentage of your revenue comes from US customers and what percentage of your inputs come from US suppliers. If either exceeds 50 per cent, you are highly vulnerable to further escalation
Explore Trade Commissioner Service resources — the Canadian Trade Commissioner Service at tradecommissioner.gc.ca offers free market reports, trade missions, and one-on-one advisory services for businesses looking to diversify into EU, UK, Asia-Pacific, or Latin American markets
Apply for Export Development Canada (EDC) financing — EDC offers export credit insurance and working capital guarantees that can reduce the financial risk of entering new markets. Visit edc.ca to apply
Check if you qualify for tariff relief — some businesses can apply for remission of Canadian counter-tariffs on US inputs that are not available from Canadian or other international suppliers. Contact the Canada Border Services Agency for details
Join a trade association — industry associations like the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters (CME) and CFIB are actively lobbying for support programs and can connect you with peers navigating similar challenges

Example scenario: A specialty food manufacturer in British Columbia exports 60 per cent of production to the US. After analyzing CETA (Canada-EU trade agreement) tariff schedules, they discover their product category enters the EU at zero duty. Using Trade Commissioner Service contacts in Germany and France, they secure meetings with three distributors. Within six months, EU sales grow from zero to 15 per cent of revenue, partially offsetting a 20 per cent decline in US orders.

If You're a Consumer Watching Prices Rise

The tariff war's effect on consumer prices has been uneven but real. According to RBC Economics, the 10 per cent of trade directly affected by tariffs is translating into higher costs for certain goods, though Canada's counter-tariffs on US products are also contributing.

Where you're paying more:

Vehicles — new car prices have risen as manufacturers pass through higher production costs from steel, aluminum, and parts tariffs. According to industry data, the average transaction price for a new vehicle in Canada has increased approximately $2,800 since tariffs began
Building materials — lumber, steel, and aluminum tariffs are adding an estimated $8,000 to $12,000 to the cost of a new home, according to the Canadian Home Builders' Association
Some grocery items — products sourced from or through the US, particularly fresh produce during winter months, have seen price increases of 5 to 15 per cent

How to save money:

Delay major vehicle purchases if possible — the CUSMA review later this year could change the tariff landscape, and automakers may offer incentives to move inventory
Buy Canadian alternatives — many Canadian retailers now label Canadian-made products. Switching to Canadian-sourced goods where possible avoids tariff-inflated prices and supports Canadian jobs
Shop seasonal and local for groceries — as spring arrives, farmers' markets and local producers offer alternatives to imported produce at competitive prices
Consider renovation timing — if you are planning a home renovation, get multiple quotes now. Building material prices may stabilize if the CUSMA review produces tariff relief later this year

If You're an Investor

The trade war has created both risks and opportunities in Canadian markets.

Sectors under pressure:

Auto manufacturing and parts suppliers — significant revenue declines
Steel and aluminum producers relying on US exports
Cross-border logistics and transportation companies

Sectors showing resilience or growth:

Natural resources (mining, energy) — benefiting from trade diversification to Asia and Europe
Technology and professional services — largely unaffected by goods tariffs
Defence and aerospace — benefiting from increased government spending on sovereignty
Agriculture and food processing — Canadian products gaining market share globally

Action steps:

Review your portfolio for concentrated exposure to tariff-sensitive sectors
Consider Canadian-focused ETFs and funds that benefit from the "Buy Canadian" trend
Watch the CUSMA review timeline — the upcoming trade agreement review is the single biggest variable for Canadian markets in the second half of 2026

The News: What Happened

According to RBC Economics analysis published in April 2026, the first year of US tariffs on Canadian goods has produced a "tale of two economies" — with tariff-exposed sectors suffering significant damage while the broader economy has shown unexpected resilience.

As reported by BNN Bloomberg, Canada's labour market has become "static" after a year of US tariffs. Manufacturing has shed 51,800 jobs, leading all industries for losses, with the bulk of those jobs lost in Ontario. The unemployment rate nationally holds at approximately 6.7 per cent, but in regions like Windsor-Essex — the heart of Canada's auto industry — unemployment has jumped to 10.7 per cent, according to Statistics Canada.

The auto sector has been particularly affected. According to CBC News, exports of motor vehicles and parts fell 21.2 per cent to $5.4 billion in January 2026, the lowest level since September 2021. Exports of passenger cars and light trucks declined 32.5 per cent. The Stellantis Brampton Assembly Plant has laid off approximately 3,000 workers, and the CAMI assembly plant in Ingersoll has let go of roughly 1,200, according to CBC reporting from Windsor.

However, Canada's trade diversification efforts are showing results. According to RBC Economics, Canadian businesses have rotated export markets faster than analysts expected, recovering nearly $11 billion of the $18.5 billion loss to the United States by tapping into 27 trading partners. Foreign direct investment into Canada totalled $96.8 billion in 2025, the highest annual inflow since 2007.

The Financial Accountability Office of Ontario warns that 68,000 additional job losses are possible in Ontario in 2026 due to the ongoing trade war, according to CBC News.

Analysis: Why This Matters

Based on our analysis of the first year of trade war data, three key patterns have emerged that will shape the second year.

First, the pain is concentrated, not distributed. Roughly 90 per cent of Canada-US trade continues to flow normally. The 10 per cent affected by tariffs — steel, aluminum, auto, lumber — represents specific industries in specific regions, primarily southwestern Ontario and parts of Quebec. This concentration means national economic indicators can look stable while individual communities experience severe economic disruption.

Second, diversification is working but cannot fully replace US market access. The 17 per cent increase in non-US exports is impressive, but Canada recovered only $11 billion of the $18.5 billion lost in US trade. For industries like automotive, where integrated cross-border supply chains took decades to build, finding alternative markets at comparable scale is not realistic in the short term.

Third, the CUSMA review scheduled for later in 2026 is the most important economic event on the horizon. According to multiple economists cited by the Globe and Mail, the review could either resolve key tariff disputes and restore trade stability, or escalate tensions further. The uncertainty itself is damaging — CFIB reports that 36 per cent of small businesses have paused investments specifically because of trade uncertainty.

What Happens Next

The second year of tariffs is likely to be shaped by the CUSMA review timeline, the US political cycle, and whether Canada's trade diversification gains are sustainable. Workers in tariff-exposed sectors should prepare for continued instability, while businesses should continue diversifying rather than waiting for a political resolution.

Your Action Plan

Immediate (This Week):

Assess your personal or business exposure to US tariffs — calculate your risk level using the frameworks above
If you work in manufacturing, update your resume and register with provincial employment services
If you own a business, audit your US revenue and supply chain dependency

Short-term (This Month):

Explore the federal workforce reskilling program if you have been affected by layoffs or reduced hours
Small business owners: contact the Trade Commissioner Service for market diversification support
Review your investment portfolio for concentrated tariff-sector exposure

Long-term (This Year):

Monitor the CUSMA review — this is the key event that could reshape the tariff landscape
Build redundancy in supply chains — diversify beyond both US and single-country dependencies
Consider retraining or upskilling toward sectors showing growth: healthcare, technology, defence, natural resources

Other Perspectives

Federal Government:

According to Prime Minister Carney's post-byelection statements reported by CBC News, the government views trade diversification as a long-term strategic priority. The government has invested in counter-tariffs on US goods, workforce reskilling programs, and diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute. Finance Minister [name] has indicated that Canada will use the CUSMA review to push for tariff reductions.

Conservative Opposition:

According to Globe and Mail reporting, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized the government for not being aggressive enough in retaliating against US tariffs and for failing to protect manufacturing jobs. The Conservatives have called for faster EI processing for tariff-affected workers and more targeted industry support.

RBC Economics (Expert Analysis):

According to RBC's "One Year of Tariff Shocks" report, Canada's economy has been "more resilient than feared but more damaged than hoped." The report notes that diversification gains are real but insufficient to fully offset US market losses, and that the manufacturing sector faces continued challenges regardless of trade policy outcomes.

Affected Workers and Communities:

According to CBC News reporting from Windsor, autoworkers describe a "climate of fear" with uncertainty about whether their plants will survive. Union leaders have called for emergency economic support for communities where unemployment has exceeded 10 per cent. Workers report difficulty retraining when local training programs are oversubscribed and living costs continue to rise.

Note: Including multiple perspectives does not imply all views are equally valid, but ensures readers can make informed judgments.

Corrections Policy

We strive for accuracy. If you find an error in this analysis, please email us at [email protected]. We will promptly investigate and correct any factual inaccuracies.

Updates:

No corrections to date (as of April 18, 2026)

Sources

RBC Economics: "One year of tariff shocks in Canada: What we learned" (April 2026)
RBC Economics: "Tracking the impact of U.S. tariffs on five targeted Canadian industries" (April 2026)
BNN Bloomberg: "Canada's labour market is 'static' after a year of U.S. tariffs, population shift" (April 2, 2026)
CBC News: "One year after the U.S. imposed tariffs on Canada's auto sector, here's how industry leaders say it's going" (April 2026)
CBC News: "68,000 job losses possible in Ontario this year due to U.S. trade war: report" (2026)
CFIB: "A Divided Year: Small Business Performance in 2025 Under the U.S.-Canada Trade War" (2026)
CFIB: "Impact of the U.S.-Canada trade war on businesses" (ongoing research)
Globe and Mail: "More tariffs, more problems: 12 charts to watch in Year 2 of the trade war" (2026)
Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey data (March 2026)
Financial Accountability Office of Ontario: "The Potential Impacts of US Tariffs on the Ontario Economy" (2026)
Bank of Canada: "The impact of US trade policy on jobs and inflation in Canada" (2026)
Canadian HR Reporter: "U.S. tariffs reshaping jobs and pay in key Canadian sectors: report" (2026)