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News Analysis

CUSMA at Risk: With Trump Saying 'Not Looking to Renew' and Canada Eyeing Bilateral Deals, Here's What Exporters, Workers, and Consumers Should Do This Week

Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc told reporters on June 11, 2026 that bilateral Canada-U.S. arrangements are now likely 'adjacent to' the trilateral CUSMA framework, after U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he is 'not looking to renew' CUSMA before a July 1 review deadline. Here is what Canadian exporters, manufacturing workers, and household consumers should do right now to prepare for tariffs that may not go away.

By Refdesk Team

CUSMA at Risk: With Trump Saying 'Not Looking to Renew' and Canada Eyeing Bilateral Deals, Here's What Exporters, Workers, and Consumers Should Do This Week

What This Means for You

The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement — CUSMA — is the document that determines whether the steel beam, lithium battery, lobster, soybean, or pickup truck part shipped from a Canadian plant to a U.S. customer arrives tariff-free or arrives with a Section 232 or fentanyl-emergency tariff bolted on top. On June 11, 2026, Canada's lead trade minister told reporters Canada now expects "bilateral arrangements" with Washington alongside the trilateral pact, after U.S. President Donald Trump said the day before that he is "not looking to renew" the deal. The July 1, 2026 review deadline is now likely to pass without a clean renewal. That uncertainty has direct financial consequences for Canadian businesses with cross-border supply chains, workers in tariff-exposed sectors, and consumers who buy U.S.-made goods that have already absorbed retaliatory pricing.

The Refdesk playbook below is organized by what role you play in the cross-border economy. Pick the block that matches you and act this week — the July 1 review date and the political risk around bilateral talks are both close enough that decisions made in June will materially affect your second-half 2026 results.

If You Are an Exporter to the United States:

The first question to answer is whether your product line still qualifies as CUSMA-compliant. Since February 24, 2026, CUSMA-compliant goods have remained tariff-free on entry to the U.S. under the general tariff regime, while non-compliant goods face a 10% global tariff and, in some categories, an additional 35% non-CUSMA rate. Steel, aluminum, copper, automotive parts, lumber and certain wood products remain tariffed under separate U.S. Section 232 measures regardless of CUSMA status.

Action items this week:

  • Pull your most recent CUSMA Certificate of Origin (CCO) and verify line-by-line that each HTS code on your invoices still satisfies the regional value content (RVC) and tariff shift rules in CUSMA Chapter 4. The CBSA has a CUSMA verification page at cbsa-asfc.gc.ca that lists the current RVC thresholds: 60% under the transaction value method or 50% under the net cost method for most goods, with elevated thresholds (75% / 70%) for "core parts" in the automotive rules of origin.
  • Re-run your origin determination if any input supplier has changed in 2025 or 2026. A single substituted component — particularly steel, aluminum, or electronics — can flip a finished good from CUSMA-compliant to non-compliant, and the cost difference at the border is the difference between 0% and 10–35%.
  • Lock in any CUSMA-compliant orders for Q3 shipment before June 30. Customs brokers report that political risk around the July 1 review date is already prompting U.S. importers to pull forward Canadian orders. If your sales cycle permits, get a written purchase order on the books before month-end so the importer's record of arrival is unambiguously under the current regime.
  • Review your contracts for tariff-pass-through clauses. A standard Incoterms DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) contract puts the tariff burden on you, the exporter. A DAP (Delivered At Place) contract puts it on the U.S. buyer. If your contracts default to DDP and you are exposed to Section 232 or non-compliant goods tariffs, the time to renegotiate is before the July 1 deadline, not after.
  • Document supply chain decisions for the BDC steel/aluminum/copper loan program. The federal government announced a $1-billion BDC loan program for tariff-affected steel, aluminum, and copper businesses in 2026. Eligibility hinges on showing tariff-driven revenue impact, which requires order book and margin data ready to submit.

Example scenario: A Saskatoon-based agricultural equipment manufacturer shipping $4.2 million in CUSMA-compliant tillage equipment annually to a North Dakota distributor pays 0% tariff today. If the regional value content drops below 60% because a Chinese-made hydraulic component was substituted into a 2026 product line, the line item flips to non-compliant and faces the 10% non-compliant tariff — $420,000 in new annual cost at current volume. A two-hour origin review with a customs broker this week is the cheapest insurance available against that outcome.

If You Work in a Tariff-Exposed Sector:

Steel, aluminum, copper, automotive, softwood lumber, and pulp-and-paper workers are the front line of Canada's CUSMA exposure. According to economist estimates cited in 2026 coverage, the 2025-2026 tariff cycle has reduced Canadian GDP by 1.5% to 2%. Steel and aluminum tariffs alone are estimated to add roughly $1,500 to the cost of a U.S.-manufactured vehicle, and General Motors' 2026 outlook flagged $3 billion to $4 billion in expected tariff costs across its North American operations.

Action items this week:

  • Confirm your eligibility for federal supports. The June 2026 federal package for steel, aluminum, and copper sectors includes the BDC $1-billion loan program for affected businesses, EI Work-Sharing programs that allow employers to reduce hours instead of laying off, and targeted training funds through Employment and Social Development Canada. The full package is summarized at canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/international-trade-finance-policy/canadas-response-us-tariffs.html.
  • Apply for EI Work-Sharing now if your employer is signalling reduced shifts. Work-Sharing applications take 30 days to process. Filing in June 2026 means coverage is in place if tariff fallout pushes your employer to reduce hours in Q3 2026.
  • Review your union's tariff response strategy. Unifor and the United Steelworkers have both published bargaining demands specifically tied to tariff exposure — including supply-chain disclosure requirements, severance multipliers, and retraining commitments. If you are due for collective bargaining in 2026 or 2027, these clauses are now the bargaining standard.
  • If you are paid under a U.S.-headquartered employer's Canadian subsidiary, document any reduction in your hours or shift premiums that can be linked to tariff-driven order changes. Records support both EI claims and any future severance entitlement calculations under the Employment Standards Act in your province.

If You Buy U.S.-Made Goods as a Consumer:

Canadian counter-tariffs already in place on certain U.S. goods raise retail prices in Canada. Canada's retaliatory tariff list, published by the Department of Finance and updated through 2026, includes targeted surcharges on selected U.S.-made consumer goods including some appliances, packaged food categories, recreational vehicles, and certain alcohol products. The full list is at canada.ca/en/department-finance/news.

Action items this week:

  • For large purchases (appliances, vehicles, recreational equipment, power tools, building materials), check the country of origin before buying. U.S.-origin goods on the retaliatory list carry an embedded surcharge passed through by the retailer. Canadian-made or third-country alternatives at the same price point have not absorbed that cost.
  • For groceries, prioritize CUSMA-compliant alternatives where available. Mexican produce, Canadian dairy, and non-U.S. processed food avoid both the U.S. retaliatory tariff embedded cost and the broader trade-uncertainty risk premium that retailers have been adding through 2026.
  • For software and digital services, the trade dispute does not currently touch most cross-border digital commerce. Streaming subscriptions, SaaS tools, and digital downloads remain outside the tariff scope under CUSMA Chapter 19 (digital trade).
  • For travel to the U.S., expect no immediate tariff pass-through on hotels or restaurant meals, but watch the Canadian dollar — tariff escalation has historically widened the CAD-USD spread, which raises every cross-border vacation cost by the percentage of currency move.

For All Canadians:

Approximately 20% of Canadian GDP is reliant on exports to the United States, and most of that flow has historically been duty-free under CUSMA and its predecessor NAFTA. The political risk around the July 1 review and the bilateral track now signalled by Trade Minister LeBlanc creates a tail risk — small in any given week, but cumulatively significant over the next six months — that any Canadian household or business with material U.S. exposure should price into 2026 planning. The most useful single action this week is to identify your personal or business U.S. exposure (export receipts, employer tariff sensitivity, U.S.-priced goods in your monthly budget) and write down what changes if tariffs escalate by another 5–10 percentage points. That number drives every other decision.

The News: What Happened

According to The Globe and Mail and Global News, Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc told reporters on Thursday, June 11, 2026 that he expects bilateral agreements to be negotiated between Canada and the United States, and separately between the United States and Mexico, alongside the trilateral CUSMA framework. As reported by Global News, LeBlanc said: "I would expect that we will have bilateral arrangements between Canada and the United States, between the United States and Mexico, sort of adjacent to the trilateral framework."

LeBlanc's comments came one day after U.S. President Donald Trump said he is "not looking to renew" the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, according to CBC News and CP24 reporting on June 10, 2026. Trump's statement was made ahead of the July 1, 2026 deadline at which the three CUSMA parties were scheduled to rubber-stamp a 16-year extension of the deal. According to CBC News, Trump said: "We don't need anything [that] Canada has, we don't need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have."

According to CBC News and Investment Executive coverage, Prime Minister Mark Carney said his negotiating team made "some progress" in trade talks in Washington this week and that there is "lots more to do" to land an overall agreement. As reported by CP24, Carney is now coordinating closely with provincial premiers on the CUSMA file.

According to CBC News and the Canadian Federation of Independent Business tariff tracker, Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, certain automotive parts, lumber and wood products remain in effect regardless of CUSMA status. According to the Tax Foundation tariff tracker and Doane Grant Thornton 2026 analysis, CUSMA-compliant goods remain exempt from the broader Trump general tariff regime, while non-CUSMA-compliant goods face a 10% global tariff that took effect February 24, 2026.

According to a June 2026 statement from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer cited by CBC News, negotiations on CUSMA "are likely to continue past the July 1 deadline." If the deadline passes without renewal, CUSMA remains in place under an annual rolling review for up to 10 years, according to CBC News.

Analysis: Why This Matters

Based on our analysis of the June 10–11 exchange between Trump, LeBlanc, and Carney, three structural points shape what comes next for Canadians.

First, the shift from a single trilateral renewal to "bilateral arrangements adjacent to the trilateral framework" — Trade Minister LeBlanc's June 11 language — is materially different from the pre-2026 negotiating posture. A bilateral track gives the U.S. administration more leverage on a sector-by-sector basis, particularly on the four sectoral tariffs (steel, aluminum, autos, softwood lumber) that are the most painful for Canadian exporters. A renewed trilateral CUSMA would have provided a single uniform set of rules; a bilateral track risks fragmenting cross-border rules and asking each Canadian sector to fight its own battle.

Second, the practical effect of the July 1 deadline passing without renewal is smaller than the headline suggests. If no party signals withdrawal, CUSMA continues under the agreement's own joint review mechanism for up to 10 years. The legal text does not allow Trump to unilaterally rip up the deal — withdrawal requires six-month notice. The risk on July 1 is not termination; the risk is the U.S. extracting concessions in exchange for renewal, with leverage from the new sectoral tariffs already in place.

Third, the federal government's domestic response so far — the BDC $1-billion loan program, EI Work-Sharing extensions, and targeted sector supports — assumes the tariffs persist, not that they go away. That implicit forecast matches what U.S. trade representative Greer has signalled publicly: sector tariffs are now considered a structural feature of access to the U.S. market, not a temporary negotiating tactic.

Historical Context:

NAFTA, signed in 1994, was renegotiated as CUSMA in 2018 during the first Trump administration. The 2018 renegotiation produced an agreement that the current Trump administration is now publicly questioning. The pattern — renegotiate, agree, then question — suggests CUSMA renewal is best treated as a process that runs across multiple deadlines rather than a single decisive vote. The current sectoral tariff regime (steel, aluminum, autos, lumber) was largely built up through 2025 and the first half of 2026 and represents the U.S. administration's primary source of negotiating leverage against Canadian and Mexican exporters.

What Happens Next:

Expect the July 1, 2026 review date to pass with formal acknowledgement that talks will continue. Expect bilateral sectoral discussions — particularly on steel, aluminum, automotive, and softwood lumber — to dominate the second half of 2026. Expect Canada's federal response to keep building out the BDC loan program and EI Work-Sharing capacity into the fall. Expect provincial premiers to play a more visible role in trade messaging through the summer, particularly Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta. Expect the next major federal trade announcement to land around the July 1 anniversary, framed as continuity rather than rupture.

Your Action Plan

Immediate (This Week):

  • If you export to the U.S., pull your CUSMA Certificate of Origin and verify regional value content compliance on every active line item.
  • If you work in steel, aluminum, copper, automotive, or softwood lumber, confirm your employer's eligibility for the federal BDC loan program and apply for EI Work-Sharing pre-emptively if shifts are at risk.
  • If you are a consumer making a large purchase this month, check the country of origin against Canada's retaliatory tariff list before buying.

Short-term (This Month):

  • Lock in CUSMA-compliant orders for Q3 shipment before June 30 to clearly fall under the current regime.
  • Renegotiate Incoterms tariff-pass-through clauses on any contracts up for renewal.
  • Document hours, shift premiums, and order book changes if you are in a tariff-exposed sector.

Long-term (This Year):

  • Build a tariff escalation scenario for your business or household: model the cost impact of an additional 5–10 percentage points on your top three U.S.-sourced inputs or revenue streams.
  • Diversify supplier base or export market mix where margin permits — even modest diversification reduces tail risk from a 2027 CUSMA breakdown scenario.
  • Track quarterly federal updates at canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/international-trade-finance-policy/canadas-response-us-tariffs.html.

Other Perspectives

Government of Canada (Carney/LeBlanc):

According to CBC News, Prime Minister Carney said his trade team made "some progress" this week and that there is "lots more to do." According to The Globe and Mail and Global News, Trade Minister LeBlanc expects bilateral arrangements alongside the trilateral framework. According to CP24, Carney is closely coordinating with provincial premiers on CUSMA strategy.

U.S. Administration (Trump/Greer):

According to CBC News, President Trump said on June 10 he is "not looking to renew" CUSMA and that the U.S. does not need Canadian or Mexican imports. According to CBC News, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has separately said negotiations will likely continue past the July 1 deadline and that all countries — including Canada — will have to "live with" some tariffs as a cost of U.S. market access.

Business Community:

According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business tariff tracker, small and mid-sized exporters report increased customs paperwork burden, working-capital pressure from tariff prepayments, and order delays as U.S. buyers wait out the trade uncertainty. According to Doane Grant Thornton 2026 analysis, the cumulative impact of the tariff cycle has been most acute in steel, aluminum, automotive, and forestry sectors.

Workers and Unions:

According to coverage in The Globe and Mail and CBC News, unions in tariff-exposed sectors have pushed federal and provincial governments for expanded EI Work-Sharing, retraining funds, and direct sector supports. The June 2026 federal package responds to several of these demands, though union leadership has called for further measures targeting downstream supply-chain workers.

Note: Including multiple perspectives doesn't imply all views are equally valid, but ensures readers can make informed judgments.

Corrections Policy

We strive for accuracy. If you find an error in this analysis, please email us at [email protected]. We will promptly investigate and correct any factual inaccuracies.

Updates:

  • No corrections to date (as of 2026-06-12)

Sources