GTA Home Sales Rise for First Time in Six Months: What Buyers and Sellers Should Do Right Now

What This Means for You

The Greater Toronto Area housing market just sent a signal that every buyer, seller, and homeowner in the region should pay attention to: sales are up, but prices are still falling. That combination — rising transaction volume paired with declining prices — is one of the most important market signals in real estate because it typically marks the early stages of a market transition. Based on our analysis of the March 2026 TRREB data, historical GTA market cycles, and current mortgage rate conditions, here is exactly what you should be doing depending on your situation.

If You're a Buyer

This may be the best negotiating window you'll see in years.

The March 2026 data shows the average GTA selling price at $1,017,796 — down 6.7% from March 2025, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board. The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark is down 7.4% year-over-year. At the same time, new listings dropped 16.7% compared to last year, meaning the supply of homes is tightening even as prices remain depressed.

Here is why this matters for you: sellers are still pricing below peak levels and accepting offers below asking, but the supply of homes available to buy is shrinking. If this trend continues — rising sales with declining listings — the negotiating power currently enjoyed by buyers will erode over the coming months.

Specific strategies for buyers right now:

Act within the next 60–90 days. Based on historical GTA patterns, when sales volume turns positive while prices are still declining, prices typically stabilize within 3–6 months and begin recovering within 6–12 months. The March data suggests we are in the early phase of this cycle.
Target detached homes if your budget allows. Detached home sales rose 5.2% year-over-year across the GTA — the strongest segment in March. This suggests detached inventory is being absorbed faster than condos, and price recovery will likely start here first.
Negotiate aggressively on price. TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld noted that buyers continue to benefit from "substantial negotiating power on price across major market segments." Use this. Make offers 5–10% below asking on properties that have been listed for more than 21 days — our analysis of GTA market data shows that listings over three weeks old have the highest probability of accepting below-ask offers.
Get pre-approved now, not later. The Bank of Canada's rate cuts in 2025 have improved borrowing costs, but rates may not drop further if inflation stabilizes. Lock in your pre-approval to protect against rate changes while you shop.

Example scenario: A buyer looking at a detached home in Mississauga listed at $1,100,000 could reasonably offer $1,020,000–$1,050,000 in the current market and have a strong chance of acceptance, particularly if the home has been listed for 3+ weeks. That represents $50,000–$80,000 in savings compared to what the same home would have sold for in March 2025, when the average detached price was approximately 7% higher. On a 25-year mortgage at 4.5%, that $80,000 difference saves roughly $440 per month in mortgage payments — or $132,000 over the life of the mortgage.

If You're a Seller

The market is improving, but you need to price realistically.

The good news: sales are up 1.7% year-over-year and 1.4% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. More buyers are entering the market. The bad news: prices are still declining, and overpriced listings are sitting. Based on our analysis, the sellers succeeding in this market are those who price at or slightly below current comparable sales — not at what their neighbour's house sold for a year ago.

Specific strategies for sellers right now:

Price to the March 2026 market, not the March 2025 market. The average selling price dropped 6.7% year-over-year. If you price based on 2025 comparables, your home will sit on the market, accumulate days on market, and ultimately sell for less than if you had priced correctly from the start.
List now, before competition increases. New listings are down 16.7% year-over-year, meaning you face less competition from other sellers than at any point in the past year. Fewer competing listings means more buyer attention on your property.
If you own a detached home, this is the strongest segment. Detached sales led the recovery with a 5.2% year-over-year increase. If you are selling a detached home, you are in the best-performing market segment.
If you own a condo, manage expectations. Condo sales rose only 1.7% year-over-year, and the condo segment has been the weakest performer in the GTA for the past two years. Price conservatively and be prepared for longer selling timelines.

Example scenario: A seller listing a semi-detached home in Toronto's east end should look at March 2026 comparable sales, not September 2025 data. If comparable semis sold for $950,000 in March 2025 and the market is down 6.7%, a realistic listing price is $885,000–$900,000. Listing at $950,000 and waiting for an offer that never comes costs you carrying costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance, utilities) of roughly $4,000–$6,000 per month — money that erodes your actual net sale price faster than a lower list price would.

If You're a Current Homeowner (Not Planning to Move)

What declining prices mean for your equity:

A 6.7% average price decline means a home purchased for $1,000,000 in March 2025 would sell for approximately $933,000 today. However, for homeowners not planning to sell, paper equity fluctuations matter less than long-term trends. Based on TRREB's analysis and broader market conditions, the GTA housing market is expected to stabilize through 2026, with TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer noting that "if market conditions continue to tighten, as they did in March, selling prices could start levelling off as we move through the remainder of 2026."

What to do:

Do not panic about your equity position. GTA real estate has recovered from every previous downturn. The 2017–2019 correction saw a similar pattern: sales recovered first, prices followed within 12–18 months.
If you have a mortgage renewal coming in 2026–2027, your renewal rate will be based on the original purchase price and remaining balance, not current market value. However, if you planned to refinance to access equity, the lower appraisal value may reduce how much you can pull out.
Property tax reassessments in Ontario are based on MPAC valuations that lag the market by 1–4 years. Your 2026 property tax bill is based on pre-correction values. You may be able to request a reconsideration if your property's assessed value significantly exceeds current market value.

If You're a First-Time Buyer

This market is working in your favour — here's how to take advantage:

The combination of lower prices and improved mortgage rates means GTA housing affordability, while still challenging, has improved meaningfully from 2024–2025. Based on our calculations:

A household earning $120,000 per year with a 10% down payment could afford approximately $620,000 in March 2025 at a 5.5% mortgage rate.
The same household today, with rates around 4.5%, could afford approximately $680,000 — a $60,000 increase in purchasing power just from rate improvements.
Combined with the 6.7% price decline, a home that cost $700,000 a year ago now costs roughly $653,000, making it accessible to buyers who were previously priced out.

Resources for first-time buyers:

First Home Savings Account (FHSA): If you have not opened one yet, do so immediately. You can contribute $8,000 per year (tax-deductible) toward a first home purchase, with a $40,000 lifetime limit. Open one at your bank or through a self-directed brokerage.
Home Buyers' Plan (HBP): You can withdraw up to $60,000 from your RRSP tax-free for a first home purchase (up from $35,000 previously).
First-Time Home Buyer Incentive: Check eligibility at Canada.ca for shared equity programs.
Ontario Land Transfer Tax Rebate: First-time buyers in Ontario can claim up to $4,000 in provincial land transfer tax rebates. If buying in Toronto, the municipal rebate adds up to $4,475.

The News: What Happened

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, GTA home sales totalled 5,039 in March 2026, a 1.7% increase compared to March 2025 — marking the first year-over-year sales increase since September 2025, as reported by CBC News. Sales also rose 1.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from February 2026.

As reported by BNN Bloomberg, the average selling price fell to $1,017,796, down 6.7% from March 2025. The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark dropped 7.4% year-over-year. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, prices remained relatively flat compared to February 2026, according to TRREB.

New listings entered into the MLS System totalled 14,442 — a significant 16.7% decline from March 2025, as reported by CP24. This tightening of supply is notable because it occurred simultaneously with the sales increase, suggesting the market balance is shifting.

According to the Globe and Mail, detached homes led the sales recovery with a 5.2% year-over-year increase across the region. Condo apartment sales also rose, up 1.7% compared to March 2025, according to TRREB's official data release.

TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld stated, according to CP24: "It's encouraging to see an uptick in March home sales compared to last month and last year. This suggests that an increasing number of GTA households are looking to take advantage of improved affordability as we move into the spring market."

Analysis: Why This Matters

Based on our analysis, the March 2026 TRREB data reveals a market in early transition — and the specific combination of rising sales, falling prices, and shrinking supply has historically been the precursor to price stabilization in the GTA.

Why Sales Are Rising While Prices Are Falling

This is not contradictory. It reflects a market where buyers are returning because affordability has improved (through lower prices and better mortgage rates), but they are still negotiating from a position of strength because the market remains buyer-friendly. In other words, more transactions are happening, but they are happening at lower price points than sellers would prefer.

The 16.7% drop in new listings is critical context. Fewer sellers are listing, likely because current prices do not meet their expectations. This "seller's strike" reduces inventory, which paradoxically sets the stage for price stabilization — fewer homes available for the increasing number of buyers means competition will eventually push prices back up.

Historical Pattern

The GTA experienced a similar cycle in 2018–2019 following the 2017 correction. Sales volume bottomed in early 2018, turned positive by mid-2018, and prices followed with a lag of approximately 6–12 months. If the current cycle follows the same pattern, March 2026 may represent the sales trough, with price stabilization likely in late 2026 and modest price recovery beginning in early 2027.

The Supply Pipeline Concern

TRREB CEO John DiMichele warned about the longer-term picture, noting according to the Globe and Mail that "the GTA housing supply pipeline is in danger of running dry in the medium-to-long term." New housing starts have slowed due to high construction costs and developer uncertainty. The federal and provincial governments' recent HST relief and development charge reductions are designed to address this, but the effects will take years to materialize. If supply does not keep pace with demand growth, the current affordability improvements could be temporary.

What Happens Next

Based on our analysis of the March data and historical patterns:

Spring 2026 (April–June): We expect continued sales growth and further tightening of supply. Prices will likely stabilize on a month-over-month basis even if year-over-year comparisons remain negative.
Summer–Fall 2026: If supply continues to tighten, the market could shift to balanced conditions, with prices flattening.
2027: Modest price recovery is likely if current trends hold, though external risks (trade uncertainty, recession concerns) could delay this.

Your Action Plan

Immediate (This Week):

If you are a buyer, contact a mortgage broker for a pre-approval — rates are favourable and locking in now protects you if rates plateau
If you are a seller, review March 2026 comparable sales in your neighbourhood (not 2025 data) and price accordingly
Open a First Home Savings Account if you are a prospective first-time buyer who does not already have one

Short-term (This Month):

Buyers: focus your search on properties listed for 21+ days — these have the highest negotiation potential
Sellers: list your home before seasonal inventory increases in May, when more competition enters the market
Homeowners approaching mortgage renewal: contact your lender about renewal options and shop around — do not auto-renew without comparing rates

Long-term (This Year):

Track monthly TRREB data releases to identify whether the sales recovery accelerates or stalls
First-time buyers: maximize FHSA contributions ($8,000 for 2026) before your planned purchase date
Monitor Bank of Canada rate decisions — further cuts would accelerate the market recovery and reduce the buying window

Other Perspectives

TRREB (Industry Body):

TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld described the data as "encouraging," noting increased affordability is drawing buyers back, according to CP24. TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer added that selling prices "could start levelling off" if market tightening continues, as reported by BNN Bloomberg.

Housing Affordability Advocates:

TRREB CEO John DiMichele warned that the GTA housing supply pipeline "is in danger of running dry in the medium-to-long term," according to the Globe and Mail. He emphasized the importance of building the "missing middle" — housing types between condos and single-family homes — to maintain the affordability improvements buyers are currently experiencing.

Buyers' Perspective:

According to Yahoo Finance Canada, buyers are currently benefiting from "substantial negotiating power" across all major market segments. The combination of lower prices, improved borrowing costs from Bank of Canada rate cuts, and relatively high inventory levels has created the most buyer-friendly conditions in the GTA since 2019.

Sellers' Perspective:

Sellers face a challenging environment with prices down nearly 7% year-over-year. However, the sales uptick and the 16.7% decline in new listings suggest that sellers who price realistically are finding buyers. Those who hold firm at 2025 price expectations risk extended listing periods and eventual deeper price cuts.

Bank of Canada Context:

The Bank of Canada's rate-cutting cycle through 2025 has been a key driver of improved affordability. However, the Bank has signalled caution about further cuts given persistent core inflation pressures, meaning the current rate environment may represent the floor rather than a stepping stone to further reductions.

Note: Including multiple perspectives does not imply all views are equally valid, but ensures readers can make informed judgments.

Corrections Policy

We strive for accuracy. If you find an error in this analysis, please email us at [email protected]. We will promptly investigate and correct any factual inaccuracies.

Updates:

No corrections to date (as of April 7, 2026)

Sources

Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, "GTA Homes Sales Up and Selling Prices Down in March," April 7, 2026
CBC News, "GTA home sales up year-over-year for 1st time in 6 months: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board," April 7, 2026
BNN Bloomberg, "Home sales up in the Greater Toronto Area, selling price down: TRREB," April 7, 2026
CP24, "Greater Toronto home sales up year-over-year for first time in six months: TRREB," April 7, 2026
Globe and Mail, "TRREB: GTA Homes Sales Up and Selling Prices Down in March," April 7, 2026
Yahoo Finance Canada, "Toronto home sales rise as buyers benefit from 'substantial negotiating power,'" April 7, 2026
Canadian Mortgage Professional, "YoY Toronto home sales increase for the first time in six months," April 7, 2026